After Low Salmon Forecast, Cook Inlet Fishers Preparing For The Worst

Last week, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s Cook Inlet sockeye salmon forecast projected 4.97 million fish for a 2.97 million number for harvesting. Both numbers are historically low after even worse numbers in recent years. Here’s more from the ADFG predictions:

2022 Forecast Discussion

In 2022, a run of approximately 4.97 million sockeye salmon is forecast to return to UCI with an estimate of 2.97 million available for harvest (commercial, sport, personal use, subsistence). Based on the absolute percentage error (APE) for the historical forecasted UCI runs compared with the estimated runs, there is an 80% probability that the 2022 UCI forecast range falls between 3.30 million and 10.11 million fish. This UCI forecast is weak based on historical total run estimates from 1986 to present (Table 3). The UCI preseason forecast has overestimated the total run by an average of 5% over the past 5 years with a range of -45% to 27% (Table 4).

The Kenai River forecast of 2.90 million sockeye salmon is 794,000 less (21%) than the 20-year average run of 3.70 million, but 19,000 less than the 5-year average of 2.92 million (Table 2). The Kenai run forecast is weak based on historical total run estimates from 1986 to present (Table 3). The Kenai preseason forecast has underestimated the total run by an average of 4% over the past 5 years with a range of -50% to 39% (Table 4). The predominant age classes in the 2022 run forecast are age-1.2 (12%) and age-1.3 (71%). For the age-1.2 forecast, a spawner-recruit/brood interaction model forecast a return of 342,000 sockeye salmon in 2022 (Table 1 and Table 2). The age-1.2 forecast is 65,000 (16%) and 40,000 (10%) less than the 20-year and 5-year averages, respectively (Table 2). A fry model based upon age-0 juvenile sockeye salmon that resided in Kenai and Skilak Lakes predicts a return of 2.06 million age-1.3 salmon in 2022 (Table 1 and Table 2). The age-1.3 forecast return is 178,000 less (8%) than the 20-year average and 128,000 more (7%) than the 5-year average (Table 2). It is notable for the age 1.3 forecast that the log sibling model forecasts a return of approximately 171,000 more fish than the chosen fry model, but it had slightly larger 5-year and 10-year MAPEs (Table 1).

The Kasilof River sockeye salmon run forecast is approximately 941,000 fish (Table 2). The Kasilof preseason forecast is considered average based on historical total run estimates from 1986 to present (Table 3). The Kasilof preseason forecast has overestimated the total run by an average of 10% over the past 5 years with a range of -31% to 10% (Table 4). The 2022 forecast is 51,000 less (5%) than the 20-year average but is 168,000 greater (22%) than the 5-year average (Table 2). The predominant age classes in the 2022 run forecast are age-1.2 (33%), age-1.3 (43%), and age-2.2 (21%). A spawner-recruit model based on the spawning population in 2018 forecast a return of 312,000 age-1.2 salmon in 2022 (Table 1 and Table 2). The age-1.2 forecast is 44,000 less (12%) than the 20-year average return and is 90,000 less (22%) than the 5-year average return. A sibling model based upon the return of age-1.2 salmon in 2021 (548,000; 356,000 20-year average) was used to forecast a return of 407,000 age-1.3 salmon in 2022 (Table 1 and Table 2). The 2022 age-1.3 forecast return is 107,000 greater (36%) than the 20-year average and 216,000 greater (113%) than the 5-year average returns. A sibling model based upon the return of age-2.1 salmon in 2021 was used to forecast a return of 193,000 age-2.2 salmon in 2022. The 2022 age-2.2

Overall, the 2021 UCI sockeye salmon run of 5.95 million was 1.58 million greater (36%) than the preseason forecast of 4.37 million fish. In 2021, the estimated total run was 3.83 million to the Kenai River; 861,000 to the Kasilof River; 424,000 to the Susitna River; and 122,000 to Fish Creek. The 2021 run forecast was 2.33 million to the Kenai River; 881,000 to the Kasilof River; 436,000 to the Susitna River; and 92,000 to Fish Creek.

And here’s more on the concern from the Cook Inlet fishing community via Alaska Public Media:

In its request for help from the federal government, the state cited changing ocean conditions as a reason for the drop. Fishermen also criticize Fish and Game for over-escaping the Kenai River with sockeye several years in a row, which they said can cause poorer runs down the road.

Managers said that might be true. But they also said they’re following their management plan to conserve struggling king salmon.

Coleman worries that plan will put sockeye in peril, too.

“We’re trying to protect one stock, but we may be harming the other one — the sockeye — as part of that regime,” he said. “And then you’ve got two stocks in peril. It’s a difficult management issue to juggle, quite frankly.”

The Kenai and Susitna River forecasts are also below average for 2022. And the sockeye projections come at the heels of a dismal king forecast. The Department of Fish and Game, predicting a low late run of about 16,000 large kings, is limiting the sport fishery to retention only in July.